Why Is That Boat Sinking // Confirmation Bias Study
Confirmation bias is the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one’s existing beliefs or theories. For instance, in a recent sailing class, my Canadian student saw a big hairy mammal in the marina. He immediately alerted the student at the helm – “Neutral! Harbor Seal! Neutral!” It was a manatee. He was using new evidence – hairy mammal in the marina – to confirm his existing belief – harry mammals in marinas are harbor seals. Well, that’s a stretch, but you see where I’m going with this. Our preconceived notions can be confirmed, but incorrectly. Let’s look at a sinking boat example.